ESW: Elections Watch - Caravans and Corruption at Campaign Start

News

October 2 marked the official opening of the campaign season for the upcoming February 2014 presidential elections in El Salvador. The leftist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) party once again demonstrated its immense mobilizing power with a massive nation-wide “Victory Caravan.” On October 5 and 6, the caravan wound across western and eastern regions of the country, with reports of up to 10,000 vehicles transporting 300,000 participants. FMLN presidential candidate Salvador Sánchez Cerén and running mate, Oscar Ortíz, paused for rallies in various towns along the caravan route. The candidates were trailed by an unending stream of flag-toting vehicles overflowing with supporters. Cheering residents gathered along the highways to greet the caravan as it passed through their communities. Just days before, ARENA party candidate Norman Quijano inaugurated his presidential campaign in Izalco, the site of some of the worst repression during the infamous 1932 military massacre that destroyed a popular peasant and communist-led uprising and left over 30,000 dead, including a young leader of the uprising named Farabundo Martí. In a chilling reference to the town’s bloody history, ARENA leader Jorge Velado declared: “We return to Izalco as a symbol of that we Areneros [ARENA party members] will never, never allow the imposition of communist, socialist or what is now called 21st century socialist projects in El Salvador.” That same day, President Mauricio Funes criticized the party’s tradition of launching its campaigns at the scene of the historic atrocity, saying, “ARENA should be ashamed.” Ex-president Tony Saca (2004-2009), formerly of the ARENA party, launched his campaign as the right-wing UNITY coalition’s candidate with a rally and small caravan in his native Usulután. On October 14, Saca finally announced his running mate: former ARENA party leader Francisco “Pancho” Laínez, who defected from the party in March 2013. While Saca registered as a member of the National Conciliation Party (PCN)—the only UNITY member party with any real voter following—he is most closely associated with the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA) party, which formed in 2009 after a number of prominent ARENA legislators publicly renounced the party and formed the new political entity. Saca's decision to run with Laínez indicates that the UNITY ticket also proposes return to the ARENA policies of the past. Indeed, Laínez himself was a contender for the ARENA presidential candidacy in 2009, and served as Minister of Foreign Relations under Saca from 2004-2008, overseeing the implementation of the notorious US-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). In the event of a second Saca cabinet, as Vice-President Laínez would be tasked with attracting foreign investment. With the campaigns now underway, the right-wing parties have found themselves mired in several major corruption scandals. Tony Saca’s credibility is in jeopardy as some 17 officials from his administration have been charged in a corruption scandal involving the embezzlement of over $10 million for a highway never finished under Saca. (The highway was recently completed under President Funes) Meanwhile, another former president from the ARENA party, Francisco Flores (1999-2004) who is currently Norman Quijano’s campaign advisor, has been implicated in corruption surrounding the 2002 public-private partnership contract between the Italian Enel Green Power company and El Salvador's public geothermal energy company. Moreover, Flores is the prime suspect in a $10 million tax fraud and money laundering case brought to the Salvadoran Attorney General by the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS). With the UNITY ticket finalized, the 2014 presidential elections are shaping up to be a three-way battle between two warring ARENA factions and the leftist FMLN. The latest poll data, gathered from September 28 through October 1, shows Salvador Sánchez Cerén leading with 30.4%, with Tony Saca and Norman Quijano nearly tied behind him at 25.5% and 25.2%, respectively. The numbers confirm Quijano’s steady decline in public opinion and evidence Saca’s ongoing rise in popularity, with Sánchez Cerén holding steady. While the polls give Sánchez Cerén the advantage in a possible second-round face-off against Quijano, Saca is favored in a second round against the FMLN ticket. With Saca emerging as a real electoral challenger, the FMLN is pushing hard for a first round victory. Cries of "In the first round!" echoed across the congested highways as the red and white caravan made its way across the country.

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